2024 NFL Mock Draft: The Reckoning
The 2024 NFL Draft is mere hours away at the time of posting. Which means I have left myself a very narrow window with which to hypothetically be correct about everything. I am going to revel in this weird Schroedinge’s Mock Draft time period that I have graced myself with.
This year’s NFL Draft is one of those ones we may look back on in 10-15 years as an NFL turning point. There is the potential for seven different QBs in this class to be legitimate starters for teams in the near future, with up to three or four being high impact, franchise defining guys. That said, like any draft this could all be meaningless, Mahomes and the Chiefs are about to win the next five Super Bowls, and the NFL will have to send them on a European tour for a season as we crown a new champion in our temporary 31 team league.
None of that matters right now though because the vibes are immaculate. This year looks to be one of the most unpredictable drafts in a very long time, and I have some prognostication and takes to get off. Not every pick in this mock will be unique from my last one (I apologize to any Raiders fans reading this). For those redundant picks the blurbs will either be slightly added to or identical. I do this for my own sanity. Thank you for your understanding. With that… let the games begin.
Pick 1 - Chicago Bears - Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Leading up to draft season, nothing is guaranteed. Except this pick, this pick is guaranteed. I very nearly just put the “I am Inevitable” Thanos .gif in for this entry. Alas, the Bears did their due diligence in having Maye and Daniels visit but this is the pick. Keenan Allen and roughly half of the Bears front office going to Williams’ Pro-Day all but confirmed it. I've seen three to four interviews with Poles since the Combine and every time he talks about Williams he gets this glow about him like he’s talking about the love of his life, and I get it. Williams is the number two overall player on my big board by the smallest of margins. He is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck and is jumping into the best situation a number one overall QB has maybe ever gone into.
Pick 2 - Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Where there's smoke, there’s fire. Boy howdy do we have a big ol smoke bomb in the Washington front office. After about a week of the odds being back to nearly even for the two QBs, Daniel’s is now a -300 favorite to be taken at two overall. Vegas doesn’t just arbitrarily change its odds that drastically and insiders have been leaning this way harder over the past couple days. Jayden is a mobile, strong arm QB who immediately enters the league as a top 5 rushing QB. The Commanders will need to do some beefing up of the offensive line on day two, but assuming they can teach Daniels how to slide, this could be their QB of the future.
TRADE - Pick 3: Minnesota Vikings - Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Imagine if Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen were in the same division. Welcome to the NFC North for the next 15-18 years. Maye has all of the talent in the world, he just needs the infrastructure around him to maximize that and turn him into a top ten guy in the league. Minnesota has that infrastructure. From a top three WR duo in the league, to a top five to seven tackle combo, and a TE that is at the top of the league talent wise, there are few better situations Maye could walk into. And Kevin O’Connel is one of the best offensive coaches in the league. You thought Kirk looked good in his system? Give him 6 months with Maye and watch them cook. The NFC north with just these first couple of picks would become a runaway favorite for best division in professional football.
Pick 4: Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
There is buzz around the Cardinals trading down, and I am sure for the right offer they would be more than willing to do just that. However, at a certain point you need to get guys that will pan out. MHJ is as sure a thing as there is in this draft. He is my number one overall player for a reason and pairing a franchise altering WR with your supposed franchise QB is the only decision you can make if you claim to want to win. MHJ immediately steps in as the first option, second option, and fourth option in this offense. Trey McBride should still get his 60 targets but the other 210 should go directly to the 6 '4'' WR who also runs a 4.4 forty and every route you can possibly imagine. Yes, even that one.
Pick 5: Los Angeles Chargers - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
The Los Angeles Chargers are doing their best “Raven’s West” impression. They started by signing Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins. Then they traded away/let go of all their receiver talent. Next up? Dominate the trenches. There hasn’t been a tackle prospect this good in a minute and what better way to start playing bully ball then by drafting the biggest bully in the yard. Alt plays mean, hard nosed football and rarely lost a rep in college. A little extra time with some NFL strength coaches, working in practice against the monsters LA has on the edge and Alt is going to be very good for just about as long as he wants.
TRADE - Pick 6: Denver Broncos - JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan
A report came out not long ago that the Broncos (and Sean Payton specifically) are ready and willing to mortgage their future for a QB. I don't think it will be that crazy of a price to move up six spots but if they l;ike JJ and he falls past the Chargers, all bets are off. The Giants do need a QB but they’re tied to Daniel Jones no matter what, so why not wait this out until next year when they can really get their guy. The Broncos have a somewhat passable roster with ascending WR talent Marvin Mims awaiting a breakout, and the defense improved mightily as the year went on. McCarthy is a raw lump of clay and Sean Payton has a lot of experience with a great, slightly undersized QB that has all the tools.
Pick 7: Tennessee Titans - JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Titans dream scenario is for Alt to fall to them. However I don't know that I see that as being possible. Latham is not the best tackle available in my eyes, however I still have him as my tenth overall player on the board, and I know some teams are not only just as high on him, but are also more concerned with Olu Fashanu’s injury stuff than I am. With that said, Latahm is a day one starter at left tackle and immediately improves every facet of their offense. Skoronski and Latham is a pairing you can set and forget for the next decade. This offense is not too far away from being solid. Add as pass catcher in the second round that has some top end speed and watch Will Levis throw moon balls all game.
Pick 8: Atlanta Falcons - Byron Murphy II, IDL, Texas
The Atlanta Falcons (assuming they still have this pick come Thursday) are going to be selecting someone on the defensive line. It could be any of the three top edges, it could be Johnny Newton (who I would take) or it could be Murphy. Byron Murphy II is an explosive athlete who gets to the QB from the tackle position and that is infinitely valuable. Just ask the Los Angeles Rams. The Falcons have been a historically bad sack team over the past half a decade and while this is an interior presence, he still helps to resolve that issue and will no doubt make the lives of his edge rushers around him easier.
Pick 9: Chicago Bears - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Rome Odunze fan club is one of two that I am a card carrying member of, the second to come later. The Bears are doing everything in their power to make sure that the organizational pratfalls that usually welcome young QBs to this team never happen again and pairing arguably the second best WR in the draft with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore means giving Caleb something he never had at USC: a top 10 WR core. Rome is a do everything, high point catcher that pairs like a delicious cheese with Moore’s perfectly aged wine. Allen might be a top three guy in the league that I would want mentoring a player with Rome’s skillset on top of that. In this particular mock, Malik Nabers is somehow available and the reason for going Odunze over him (besides my opinion that he's just better) is that Moore does a lot of the same things Nabers does and he is under contract. Allen does a lot of the same things Odunze does but he’s 32, injury prone, and only under contract for this upcoming season.
Pick 10: New York Jets - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
It is extremely weird that I have Nabers falling this far, however the Jets need a TE and they don’t need a WR. Brock Bowers is the best of the best in terms of pass catching TEs. While watching his film I felt something spiritual and primal. Then I watched the rest of this class immediately after and there’s a reason only three other tight ends made it into my top 100 list. Brock is a route specialist, massive body, who absolutely runs faster than you’d expect. He has never met a tackle he couldn’t break, a line to gain he couldn’t reach, or an overthrown ball he couldn’t get a mitt on. Aaron Rodgers is notorious for not throwing to rookie pass catchers but I think even he would make an exception here.
TRADE - Pick 11: New England Patriots - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
There is a twitch in my brain to do the double trade down here. But when a gift horse falls out of the sky and lands in your lap, you have to unwrap it and ride it into the sunset. Nabers can be a foundational piece of an offense and no matter who plays QB for the Patriots this season, they will need people to throw it to, and who better than a top three wide receiver in the class. Nabers is an explosive athlete that will no doubt have either Jacoby Jones or… a player to be named later looking significantly better than they have any right to.
TRADE - Pick 12: New York Giants - Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU
It shouldn’t happen but something about the LSU WRs going back to back makes my heart happy. The Giants need an explosive playmaker on this offense as they don’t exactly have any of those. Thomas is about as explosive as it gets. I am definitely lower on him than most of the league but there will never be anything more fun than watching really big men move way faster than they have any right to. Being able to trade down and still get an explosive athlete at WR is a dream scenario for the Giants.
Pick 13: Las Vegas Raiders - Michael Penix Jr,. QB, Washington
[I really wanted to change this pick… I did. There is just way too much smoke here and if any team is going to drastically overdraft someone it will be the Raiders. I still haven’t gotten over Clelin Farrel at 4.] The Raiders are missing top talent at just about every position, but they are also missing a QB. Weirdly this is a relatively okay spot for a rougher around the edges QB like Penix due to having Davante Adams and Michael Mayer waiting in the wings for a competent QB to throw them balls. Penix is a weird case study because when you watch his tape for him, there is so much to love from the accuracy, to the sideline placement, to the mobility within the pocket. However when watching tape for those around him you see some lack of awareness, accuracy drain, and more than a few underthrows. A report came out recently that coaches around the league are higher on him than scouts within the same organizations, so here comes the war. And for a new coach like Antonio Pierce, this is where we find out the kind of coach he is, at least in terms of drafting.
Pick 14: New Orleans Saints - Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
A top ten player on my board and exactly what the doctor ordered for the Saints. Ryan Ramczyk (nailed that spelling first try) may never play again due to knee issues and the opposite tackle is just kind of a mess. Fashanu projects and is most natural playing LT but can easily play RT if needed. He's aggressive and strong and I think the injury concerns are overblown. This is a guy that can anchor an offensive line and the Saints would be lucky to have him fall here.
TRADE - Pick 15: Philadelphia Eagles - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Reports around this time of the Draft process (I’m writing this at 11 AM Wednesday) are either the most reliable you’ve ever heard or complete smokescreens with no chance of being true. One came out today that the Eagles are actively trying to move up in the Draft. A report about Howie Roseman wanting to move up in the Draft? I’m taking that one to the bank and I think this is the perfect spot to do it. Philly has two second rounders this year and Indianapolis have about 16 roster spots they need to flesh out. The Eagles have a desperate need at corner and this is where the top tier prospects at that position are going to start to go. Mitchell is a man-up corner with great technical skills who doesn’t mind being put on an island; the exact skill set this Eagles team desperately needs.
Pick 16: Seattle Seahawks - Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
Seattle is one of the first teams in this draft that can go just about anywhere in this draft, not because of need but because of the roster they’ve built. Edge feels like the biggest hole to me so Dallas Turner still being around at this point is very intriguing as he comes in and not only frees up a little space for Leonard Williams on the interior in the pass rush but is more than capable of assisting the interior guys on the inside with run stops. Seattle needs to sure up these little holes to actually make a viable playoff push and Turner is a great start to that.
Pick 17: Jacksonville Jaguars - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
After a deeply offensive tilted Draft through the first 14 picks, we get our little defensive run. The Jags need a corner and not a whole lot else. A receiver would be nice but the ones that are available are not seen as highly as I view them. In addition, the Jaguars have given major contracts to just about every position on their team except secondary. Arnold is Devon Witherspoon lite and the Jags deeply need someone in that secondary that’s got that dog in them.
Pick 18: Cincinnati Bengals - Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Bengals sit in a good position, but not a great one. I like a defensive run in front of them and in all likelihood they’re vibing with an offensive pick. However they are also likely to miss out on a lot of the truly elite talent on offense in this Draft. The Bengals need a few things for next year but little (while Tee Higgins is still around) right now. Their right tackle, Trent Brown, is only on a one year deal and doesn’t feel like a candidate to play there any longer. Amarius Mims is a raw, athletic freak at the tackle position. Letting him redshirt his first year behind Trent Brown is an ideal spot for both him and the Bengals. Mims also has a little flexibility in being able to shift inside so if someone goes down he is there to get reps and probably be overall better (though likely more inconsistent) than whoever they have as back ups currently.
Pick 19: Los Angeles Rams - Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
Did someone say Aaron Donald retired? I don’t mean to necessarily compare Newton to an all time great defender, however there’s no one in this Draft (in my eyes) that can replicate even close to his productivity apart from Newton. Falling to the Rams would be a god-send for McVay and crew as they get ready to likely overachieve once again. The defense was surprisingly good last year and replacing the dominant interior presence with a dominant interior presence feels like the best possible outcome.
Pick 20: Pittsburgh Steelers - Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
The Steelers desperately need to invest in their offensive line. Broderick Jones projects to be shifted over to the left tackle position leaving right tackle (and really two of three interior positions) open for the taking. Why not go grab the, in my opinion, most versatile offensive lineman in the draft. He works best as a tackle but can easily play guard and in a true pinch would serve well enough as a center. No matter who ends up playing more QB for the Steelers, they need protection and Fautanu makes the most sense in my mind.
Pick 21: Miami Dolphins - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon St
This draft could not fall more beautifully for the Dolphins. Fuaga is for sure a tackle but he does have the versatility to fit into a guard role temporarily. Terron Armstead is not getting any younger so having Fuaga fill an early need on the interior to then bounce outside when Armstead’s tenure in Miami is done would be nothing short of miraculous. I’m also a little lower on Fuaga than the consensus so the odds of this happening seem to be lower by the day. That said, with so many incredible options at tackle, someone has to fall… right?
TRADE - Pick 22: Indianapolis Colts - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
The Colts need offensive playmakers. However, what they need more is any semblance of a starter in the secondary. Their corners and safeties are subpar if we’re being generous. To combat that, go take the most versatile DB in this Draft. My corner one and for good reason. He can play inside, outside, deep safety, box safety. I would personally start him at outside corner but if your starting box safety goes down just shift DeJean to that role and watch him cook. There are certainly sexier picks to make but at this spot, there is no better pick they could make.
TRADE - Pick 23: New England Patriots - Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
I got burned in my mock last year by listening to the hype and putting Will Levis in my top 15 or so picks. This year I have decided to ignore the inverse hype and put six QBs in both of my mocks. The Patriots need a QB and a good one is sitting right here. There’s no guarantee Nix would be there when they pick next so why not grab him now!? The Patriots have so many needs and could just as easily grab any of the next five dudes on this mock, but Nix just feels like a New England Patriot. He has the experience to start out of the box and with the Patriots below average to bad offensive line, his ability to get the ball out quick and accurately is a highly desired attribute. Have Nix throw the ball on screens and slants to Malik Nabers and watch him shred his way to touchdowns. Dream come true.
Pick 24: Dallas Cowboys - Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
I promise I hate this pick more than you do. I am desperately low on this linebacker class, though I do realize I am not the NFL nor its scouts. The Cowboys just lost a starting linebacker in Leighton Vander Esch and Cooper does a few of the same things sort of as well. The Cowboys have always played to the beat of their own drum and with Jerry Jones looking more and more senile by the day, something weird is coming. A linebacker that just barely sits in my top 50 at a low value position in the first round just feels like the kind of “Jerry made me do it” move nobody wants to see.
Pick 25: Green Bay Packers - Graham Barton, IOL, Duke
The Bears fan in me is annoyed at how little the Packers need. However their offensive line suffered the losses of David Baktiari and Jon Runyan this offseason. While the Packers have been excellent at developing O-line talent, the need to sure up the line in front of Jordan Love is there. Grabbing a guard who has more than enough size to play tackle in Barton is too easy for them. The guy has as much versatility as just about anyone in this class not named Fuaga or Fautanu, so go grab him, assess what he does best, and stick him at the position you like him at most. This is a very “Eat your Wheaties” pick and few teams are better at eating their Wheaties than the Green Bay Packers.
Pick 26: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
One thing I haven't super expected while going through this mock is the fall of the Edge class. I’m not as high as most but I am also not the lowest on this class that I have seen. That said the Buccaneers don’t need much other than a center, though with the way this draft is falling the need for center can be filled in the second round. Getting a talent like Verse this late is a Bucs dream scenario. They lacked a true threat on the edge and their defense suffered for it. They have talent at every level but getting a player who can absolutely be a 10-12 sack a year guy is something I don’t think many around the league expect this late. Hooray for offensive needy teams in an offense loaded class.
Pick 27: Arizona Cardinals - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
It stands to reason that in offense heavy drafts, defensive runs have to happen. Hi, welcome to the second run on defense. The draft falls so beautifully for Arizona no matter what happens. The Cardinals need a whole new team and defensive minded head coach Jonathon Gannon is not going to allow multiple firsts to go by without getting a great player to help on that side. Edge is another big need but with the best edges (that don’t have major medical concerns) all being gone at this point, getting a top three to four corner is nothing to turn your nose up at. If the Cardinals have a “guy” they also feel like a great trade up candidate into more the middle of the first to grab an edge.
Pick 28: Buffalo Bills - Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
If the Bills don’t pick a receiver here I will scream. AD Mitchell is a great talent, I also think Troy Franklin and Keon Coleman would be great here, Mitchell just feels like the most likely. I am one of the people very high on this WR class and think no matter what happens, the Bills better not be trying to get a 1000 yard season out of Curtis Samuel. Do the right thing Buffalo…. Do it…
Pick 29: Detroit Lions - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The Lions are so close to being a true Super Bowl contender and this may just be the Draft where they cement themselves as such. The biggest hole for the Lions was secondary with a bullet. The goal here is to grab whoever the best available corner is and sprint to the podium with that name in the envelope. McKinstry has some injury concerns and isn’t the best press corner in the class but has all the stuff to be a long term starter and potential star on the outside. This is the LIons and so the potential for them to reach on a guy like TJ Tampa or a more physical corner like Kamari Lassiter is there, however if Brad Holmes wants to keep his great Draft streak going he needs to just do the sensible thing here and take McKinstry.
Pick 30: Baltimore Ravens - Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
The Ravens need a tackle more than most other positions. They lost Morgan Moses in the offseason with no real adequate replacement, so why not go grab another Morgan. This time it's Jordan and with who's left on the board I don't see a better fit or talent. This tackle class has the chance to be all time great and teams that need offensive line are not going to want to miss out. Morgan’s consistency and sub-par footwork are a concern to me but the size and athleticism are genuine game changers. Let Morgan develop in front of a QB that can more than make up for his misqueues and watch him blossom into one of the most dominant tackles in football.
Pick 31: San Francisco 49ers - Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Gotta go fast! The 49ers have been so close to a Super Bowl so many times in Kyle Shanahan’s time as coach and this feels like the kind of pick you make when you’re fed up and don’t know what to do. Offensive line is likely a bigger need but Aiyuk may be gone before the season and what better way to replace him than with an athletically gifted, freakishly fast player in Worthy? He won’t be able to do all of the same things but he will always be a threat to blow the top off of a defense and after watching his protege in Miami do just that for two years now, Shanahan may want his own taste of that delicious nectar.
Pick 32: Kansas City Chiefs - Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
We love an “Eat your Wheaties” pick around these parts and the Chiefs know when to do it. While receiver is obviously a need, this class is so deep a starting caliber receiver will be there in round two. The tackles in this class won’t and the Chiefs need one just as bad. Protect Patrick Mahomes at all costs, then go get him a weapon. Suamataia is one of the most physically gifted tackles in the class and while he may struggle early, the Chiefs will be able to stick him on whichever side they need him on more and then start the development. He is an upgrade over what they had last year and with a good bit of coaching, his footwork and pass protection issues can be cleaned up in a hurry. He has all the tools and the Chiefs are the organization I believe in the most to be able to get the best out of him.